Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 947 LANDED 1:55 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 947 · AMS → IAD

took off 11:36 AM CEST · landed 1:55 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↑ AMS is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 947 · AMS → IAD

Odds over time