Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1039 · BWI → ORF
departs 4:05 PM ET · arrives 5:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.