Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1041 · BWI → PBI
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PBI is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PBI
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PBI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
PBI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.