Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 106 · SAT → MCO
departs 5:15 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.