WN 1088 · MDW → SMF

took off 9:06 PM CT · landed 11:02 PM PT (scheduled 7:43 PM CT → 10:24 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1088 · MDW → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?