Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1119
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1119 · BWI → TPA
departs 6:45 AM ET · arrives 9:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.