WN 1151 · AUS → OAK

took off 2:54 PM CT · landed 4:07 PM PT (scheduled 2:37 PM CT → 4:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1151 · AUS → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?