Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1164 · BWI → SAN
departs 4:40 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
BWI is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.