Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1171
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1171 · SMF → GEG
departs 8:40 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.