Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1209
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 1209 · MCO → RDU
departs 8:10 AM ET · arrives 9:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.