WN 1256 · PHX → SAN

took off 8:10 PM MT · landed 8:58 PM PT (scheduled 7:13 PM MT → 8:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1256 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?