WN 1292 · MCO → BUF

took off 9:01 PM ET · landed 11:23 PM ET (scheduled 8:10 PM ET → 10:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BUF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1292 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late did it get to BUF?