WN 140 · PHX → MDW

departs 6:48 PM MT · arrives 12:11 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 140 · PHX → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?