Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1416 · TPA → PIT
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.