Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1430 · BNA → MDW
departs 3:25 PM CT · arrives 5:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.