WN 1454 · PHX → SAT

took off 11:01 AM MT · landed 2:44 PM CT (scheduled 10:46 AM MT → 3:19 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1454 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?