Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1459 · MCO → FLL
departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.