Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1465
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1465 · MCO → SJU
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 2:35 PM AT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.