Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1476 LANDED 9:07 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1476 · TPA → BUF

took off 6:52 AM ET · landed 9:07 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ TPA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1476 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time