Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 147
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 147 · DAL → SDF
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
2pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.