Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 147
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 147 · SDF → TPA
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.