Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1534 · DAL → AUS
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.