Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1538 · SNA → DAL
departs 6:45 AM PT · arrives 11:55 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 32%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.