Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 1578 · SJU → BNA
departs 3:55 PM AT · arrives 7:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, thunderstorms forecast at SJU that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from SJU are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 8,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.