Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1585 · DAL → TYS
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at TYS that day
↓
9am departures from DAL are usually not late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.