Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1585 · TYS → TPA
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at TYS that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.47 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.