Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 1643 · DEN → MSY
departs 1:05 PM MT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 1.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.