Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1645 · MCO → TYS
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at TYS that day
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
TYS usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.25 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.