Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1699 · SAN → SMF
departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 11:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.