Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1747
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1747 · PHX → STL
departs 8:05 PM MT · arrives 1:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.