Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1765 · DAL → TPA
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 8:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.48 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.