Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1786 LANDED 8:06 AM MT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1786 · SEA → PHX

took off 5:54 AM PT · landed 8:06 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SEA are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1786 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time