Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1817 LANDED 9:40 AM MT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

WN 1817 · DEN → TUS

took off 9:05 AM MT · landed 9:40 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ TUS is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1817 · DEN → TUS

Odds over time