WN 1823 · DEN → TUS

took off 8:29 PM MT · landed 8:58 PM MT (scheduled 7:33 PM MT → 8:37 PM MT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Gusts to 29 kt forecast at TUS that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1823 · DEN → TUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to TUS?