Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1833
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 1833 · BWI → BDL
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
BDL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.