Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1838 · EUG → SAN
departs 10:25 AM PT · arrives 12:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EUG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
EUG (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.