Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1843 LANDED 1:04 PM MT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1843 · SAT → PHX

took off 1:07 PM CT · landed 1:04 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1843 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time