Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1851 · HNL → OGG
departs 10:00 AM HT · arrives 10:50 AM HT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Wed 10/7 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.