Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 186 · ATL → BWI
departs 10:15 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 3%
Thu 10/1 11%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.