Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1871 LANDED 9:14 PM MT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1871 · LAS → ELP

took off 6:58 PM PT · landed 9:14 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ELP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1871 · LAS → ELP

Odds over time