Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 187 · SAN → SMF
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.