Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1891 LANDED 9:19 AM PT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1891 · SAN → SMF

took off 8:13 AM PT · landed 9:19 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1891 · SAN → SMF

Odds over time