Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1896 · AUS → LAS
departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 6:30 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.33 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.