Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1929
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1929 · MCO → SDF
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.