Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1946 LANDED 7:35 AM PT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 1946 · OAK → LAX

took off 6:41 AM PT · landed 7:35 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from OAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1946 · OAK → LAX

Odds over time