WN 1994 · HNL → SMF

departs 12:06 PM HT · arrives 8:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1994 · HNL → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?