Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2011 · TPA → BNA
departs 8:10 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.