WN 2116 · BOI → SMF

took off 5:27 PM MT · landed 5:33 PM PT (scheduled 5:10 PM MT → 5:49 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2116 · BOI → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?