Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 2131 · ORF → BNA
departs 9:35 PM ET · arrives 10:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.