Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 215 · ATL → MCO
departs 1:30 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1 25%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.